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徐天啟:“南美瑞士”烏拉圭的戰(zhàn)略智慧

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編者按:2月1日,烏拉圭總統(tǒng)奧爾西抵達(dá)北京,開啟為期7天的訪華之旅。當(dāng)天,中國人民大學(xué)重陽金融研究院國別研究部副主任、副研究員徐天啟接受并表示,烏拉圭通過務(wù)實(shí)合作拓展戰(zhàn)略空間,以國內(nèi)穩(wěn)定為根基鞏固外交根基,為當(dāng)今世界各國應(yīng)對(duì)大國競(jìng)爭(zhēng)、保持獨(dú)立自主提供了重要國際模板?,F(xiàn)將采訪視頻及文章中英文發(fā)布如下: (全文約2500字,預(yù)計(jì)閱讀時(shí)間7分鐘)

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烏拉圭總統(tǒng)亞曼杜·奧爾西于2月1日至7日訪華,成為中國政府正式發(fā)布第三份《中國對(duì)拉丁美洲和加勒比政策文件》后第一位訪華的拉美國家元首。被世界稱為“南美瑞士”的烏拉圭,再次用智慧強(qiáng)化自身的獨(dú)立自主能力,推動(dòng)世界向多邊主義發(fā)展。

01

烏拉圭和拉美國家的最大外部挑戰(zhàn)

對(duì)于烏拉圭和許多拉美國家來說,越來越多證據(jù)表明,其發(fā)展的最大外部挑戰(zhàn)來自他們的鄰居美國。拉丁美洲是西半球的重要組成部分,而美國最新宣布的所謂“新西半球戰(zhàn)略”,集中體現(xiàn)在最新的美國《國家安全戰(zhàn)略》、2026年《國防安全戰(zhàn)略》等文件中。這些文件都提出要執(zhí)行門羅主義的“特朗普推論”,就是說,美國要求西半球國家減少與域外國家的聯(lián)系與合作,將本國資源與權(quán)力向美國讓渡。這項(xiàng)所謂的新戰(zhàn)略已被全球許多媒體和學(xué)者徹底揭露:美國意圖將整個(gè)西半球的資源盡數(shù)掌控于己。例如,美國近期對(duì)委內(nèi)瑞拉總統(tǒng)尼古拉斯·馬杜羅實(shí)施的扣押行動(dòng),被國際社會(huì)廣泛視為其企圖控制委內(nèi)瑞拉原油的手段。

在此背景下,烏拉圭總統(tǒng)此次訪華無疑有著自己的戰(zhàn)略目的。閱讀烏拉圭“廣泛陣線”所提出的《2025-2030執(zhí)政綱要》,其中明確提出烏拉圭應(yīng)實(shí)施主動(dòng)的、有利于國家主權(quán)的、捍衛(wèi)多邊主義的外交政策,這顯然與美國的“門羅主義”西半球戰(zhàn)略不符。因此,奧爾西要借訪華向華盛頓傳遞明確信號(hào):烏拉圭長(zhǎng)期奉行獨(dú)立自主、多邊主義的外交傳統(tǒng),蒙得維的亞有權(quán)對(duì)特朗普所謂的新半球戰(zhàn)略“說不”,這無疑是對(duì)美國門羅主義霸權(quán)的有力回?fù)簟?/strong>

02

加強(qiáng)一切務(wù)實(shí)對(duì)外合作增進(jìn)烏拉圭國家利益

在當(dāng)今充滿挑戰(zhàn)的世界環(huán)境中,一個(gè)國家越是能堅(jiān)定不移地倡導(dǎo)多邊主義、推動(dòng)全球多極化進(jìn)程、并與所有伙伴保持良好關(guān)系,就越能確保其國家利益最大化,這似乎是顯而易見的道理。而烏拉圭正踐行著這樣的理念。據(jù)報(bào)道,奧爾西此行人數(shù)超80人,包括外交部、工業(yè)部、畜牧業(yè)部、央行行長(zhǎng)等多位高官,以及一眾商業(yè)團(tuán)體代表,充分體現(xiàn)了其務(wù)實(shí)的國家利益優(yōu)先取向。

對(duì)于烏拉圭來說,對(duì)華經(jīng)貿(mào)合作對(duì)促進(jìn)本國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展至關(guān)重要。自2013年以來,中國長(zhǎng)期保持著烏拉圭第一大貿(mào)易伙伴的地位。中國向?yàn)趵缳徺I大量大豆、牛肉、紙漿,烏拉圭向中國購買電動(dòng)汽車等綠色產(chǎn)品與設(shè)備。2025年,兩國貨物貿(mào)易額達(dá)71.9億美元,保持兩位數(shù)增長(zhǎng)。不久前,拉美最大區(qū)域經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化組織——南方共同市場(chǎng)與歐盟達(dá)成了歷史性的自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定,烏拉圭也是南共市一員。在此基礎(chǔ)上,奧爾西政府明確支持與中國開展自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定談判,為對(duì)華經(jīng)貿(mào)打開更廣闊的市場(chǎng)空間。通過深化與中國、歐洲等全球伙伴的合作關(guān)系,烏拉圭獲得了實(shí)實(shí)在在的經(jīng)濟(jì)利益,避免了陷入“選邊站隊(duì)”“零和博弈”下的經(jīng)濟(jì)陷阱。

03

良好的國內(nèi)治理是烏拉圭戰(zhàn)略自主的底氣

近年來,許多拉美國家都遭受了社會(huì)治理困境的困擾。區(qū)域內(nèi),有的國家常年通脹率、失業(yè)率高企,人民流離失所,甚至被迫成為移民逃往他國;有的國家6年內(nèi)換了6任總統(tǒng),國家領(lǐng)袖“走馬燈”般輪換,多方政治勢(shì)力惡斗,政府空轉(zhuǎn)現(xiàn)象加劇;有國家左右翼極化對(duì)抗明顯,社會(huì)撕裂嚴(yán)重,不同社會(huì)群體矛盾激化。這些國家治理混亂現(xiàn)象,不僅極大地削弱了政府治理的嚴(yán)肅性,也導(dǎo)致國家面對(duì)外部壓力時(shí),缺乏一致對(duì)外的韌性。

相比之下,烏拉圭堪稱該地區(qū)乃至全球政治穩(wěn)定的典范。自1985年民主選舉政府回歸以來,權(quán)力交接總體平穩(wěn)有序。奧爾西政府同樣強(qiáng)調(diào)國內(nèi)各方需要合作與溝通,提倡在社會(huì)福利與經(jīng)濟(jì)活力間尋求平衡,反對(duì)極端個(gè)人自由主義觀念,同時(shí)強(qiáng)調(diào)保障更公平的收入分配,并延續(xù)烏拉圭回歸民主治理以來始終奉行的市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行原則。奧爾西政府還強(qiáng)調(diào),安全是民主的保障,提出“國家公共安全計(jì)劃”,建立綜合犯罪打擊系統(tǒng)。作為拉美國家,烏拉圭避免了區(qū)域內(nèi)常見的“府院之爭(zhēng)”“黨爭(zhēng)內(nèi)訌”,為國家對(duì)外戰(zhàn)略執(zhí)行提供了堅(jiān)實(shí)的國內(nèi)支撐。奧爾西此次“高調(diào)”訪華,正是基于國內(nèi)治理底氣的戰(zhàn)略自信表現(xiàn)。

04

展望:讓人民生活更美好

攜手國際合作共創(chuàng)美好世界

綜上所述,烏拉圭作為國際社會(huì)公認(rèn)的模范生,正展現(xiàn)其獨(dú)特治理之道:對(duì)內(nèi),強(qiáng)化國家治理體系和治理能力,優(yōu)先保障國家利益,切實(shí)改善民生福祉;對(duì)外,抵制霸權(quán)脅迫,拒絕對(duì)大國指令的盲從,拒絕大國誘使選邊站隊(duì)或參與魯莽對(duì)抗的空頭支票。烏拉圭通過務(wù)實(shí)合作拓展戰(zhàn)略空間,以國內(nèi)穩(wěn)定為根基鞏固外交根基?!澳厦廊鹗俊钡膭?wù)實(shí)之道,為當(dāng)今世界各國應(yīng)對(duì)大國競(jìng)爭(zhēng)、保持獨(dú)立自主提供了重要國際模板。

英文原文

Uruguayan President Yamandu Orsi is paying a state visit to China, becoming the first President from Latin America to visit after the Chinese government's formal release of its 3rd

China's Policy Paper on Latin America and the Caribbean
. Uruguay, known by the world as the "Switzerland of South America," is showing its wisdom to increase its independence, autonomy and advance multilateralism in the changing world.

What is the biggest external challenge for Uruguay and Latin America nowadays?

Nowadays, for Uruguay and most of the countries in Latin America, the biggest external challenge is believed to come from within their neighborhood, namely the United States. The Latin American countries lie in the Western Hemisphere, and the US has been recently releasing its so-called new Western Hemisphere strategy.

The latest National Security Strategy (NSS), the 2026 National Defense Strategy (NDS), and other related documents, all show that the US is about to deploy a new strategy for the Western Hemisphere, called Trump's Monroe Doctrine (or the "Donroe Doctrine"). The new strategy intends to only allow Western Hemisphere countries to cooperate internally instead of with other countries in the world. Many global media outlets and scholars have explained this new strategy well. It is clear that the US wants to control all the resources in the hemisphere for itself. As an example, the recent seizure of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro by the US was seen as an attempt to control crude oil in Venezuela.

Against this backdrop, which many call threats, the Orsi administration clearly has its own strategic ideas and goals. Looking at the

Bases Programáticas 2025-2030
by Frente Amplio, President Orsi and his team plan to engage diplomatically with positivity, applying principles of sovereignty, autonomy and multilateralism.

Through his visit to China, Orsi aims to send a clear signal to Washington: Uruguay has long upheld an independent, multilateral diplomatic tradition, and Montevideo will not accept Washington's so-called New Western Hemisphere strategy. This undoubtedly constitutes a forceful rebuttal to the American Monroe Doctrine hegemony.

Strengthening practical cooperation with China to advance national interests

In today's challenging world, it seems to be obvious that if a country can steadfastly champion multilateralism, promote global multipolarity, and maintain sound relations with all partners, then it can ensure the maximization of its national interests. And that is what Uruguay has been doing.

Reports indicate that Orsi's delegation will exceed 80 members, including senior officials from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Livestock, Agriculture and Fishes, and the central bank, alongside numerous representatives from business associations, etc., which fully reflects Uruguay's pragmatic orientation prioritizing its own national interests.

For Uruguay, economic and trade cooperation with China is indispensable for advancing its development. Since 2013, China has consistently been Uruguay's largest goods trading partner. China serves as the primary market for Uruguayan exports of soybeans, beef, and pulp, while Uruguay is a significant buyer of China's green products, such as EV vehicles.

Recently, the MERCOSUR (Southern Common Market) has just concluded a historic free trade agreement with the European Union. Building upon this achievement, the Orsi administration can also promote negotiations for a free trade agreement with China during this trip, thereby opening broader market opportunities for economic and trade relations with China.

By deepening cooperative ties with China, Europe and other nations worldwide, Uruguay is securing tangible economic benefits while avoiding the economic pitfalls of being drawn into zero-sum games or forced to choose sides.

Sound domestic governance underpins Uruguay's strategic autonomy and independence

Unfortunately, many Latin American countries have been facing governance difficulties in the recent years. Within the region, there are countries which have seen six presidents in six years, with leaders rotating like a revolving door, showcasing fierce political infighting paralyzing governments. There are countries enduring chronic high inflation and unemployment, forcing citizens into displacement or even migration abroad. There are countries having polarization between left and right wings, which deepens the social divisions and intensifies conflicts between different groups.

Such governance difficulties or sometimes even chaos not only severely undermines the credibility of government administration, but also leaves the countries lacking cohesive resilience when confronting external pressures.

Uruguay exemplifies the distinctive political stability in the region. Since the elections in 1984, power transitions have generally proceeded smoothly. The Orsi administration similarly emphasizes the necessity of cooperation and communication among domestic stakeholders. It upholds a balanced approach to social welfare and economic vitality, opposing extreme individualistic notions of liberty, while safeguarding more equitable income distribution, and maintaining the market economy operating principles that have been consistently upheld since 1985.

Stressing that security underpins democracy, it has proposed a "National Public Safety Plan" to establish a comprehensive crime-fighting system. As a Latin American country, Uruguay has avoided the regionally prevalent conflicts between the executive and legislative branches, as also the destructive partisan infighting, thereby providing robust domestic support for its foreign strategy.

President Orsi's high-profile visit to China reflects his strategic confidence, underpinned by good domestic governance. When unity prevails internally, external pressures struggle to undermine a nation's resolve to make sound choices.

Outlook: To give people a better life and to cooperate internationally toward a better world

Uruguay, widely recognized as a model student in the international community, is showcasing its approach domestically. The country is prioritizing national interests by strengthening governance and improving citizens' livelihoods. Externally, Uruguay is resisting hegemonic intimidation and blind obedience to directives from major powers. The country is also rejecting the temptation of empty promises from great powers to choose sides or engage in reckless confrontation.

Uruguay has been expanding its strategic space through pragmatic cooperation and fortifies its diplomatic foundations with domestic stability. The pragmatic approach of the "Switzerland of South America" serves as a vital model for navigating great power competition, and to keep its own independence and autonomy.

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