最近，“TACO”一詞再次進(jìn)入公眾視野。

別誤會(huì)，這并不是指墨西哥卷餅，而是一個(gè)英文縮略詞——“Trump Always Chickens Out”（特朗普總是臨陣退縮）。

這一說法最早由《金融時(shí)報(bào)》專欄作家羅伯特·阿姆斯特朗提出，原本用于形容特朗普在關(guān)稅政策上的反復(fù)——先強(qiáng)硬加碼，再推遲、降級(jí)甚至撤回。

"TACO trade", which stands for "Trump always chickens out", was coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong but has since spread across Wall Street and the internet, mocking the president's back-and-forth on tariff policies.

有記者當(dāng)面向特朗普提及這一說法，他顯然頗為不滿：“哦，我退縮？這說法可真有意思，我從沒聽過?！彼S后反問：“你管這叫退縮？”并批評(píng)這是一個(gè)“惡毒的問題”。

"Oh, I chicken out? Isn't that nice? I've never heard that," Trump said.

"You call that chickening out?" Trump asked, appearing visibly agitated by the question, which he called "nasty".

如今，這一帶有諷刺意味的標(biāo)簽，似乎也開始被用于解讀當(dāng)前的伊朗局勢(shì)。

4月6日，特朗普在白宮向伊朗發(fā)出一項(xiàng)極為具體的威脅：如果伊朗未能在美東時(shí)間7日20時(shí)前達(dá)成協(xié)議以重新開放霍爾木茲海峽，他將發(fā)動(dòng)一場(chǎng)歷時(shí)4小時(shí)的空襲（）。

這一表態(tài)迅速引發(fā)外界猜測(cè)：如果伊朗未作出回應(yīng)，特朗普是否真的會(huì)采取軍事行動(dòng)，還是會(huì)再次出現(xiàn)所謂的“TACO時(shí)刻”？

澳大利亞《世紀(jì)報(bào)》援引澳大利亞美國(guó)研究中心高級(jí)研究員布魯斯·沃爾普的分析稱，特朗普有高達(dá)90%的可能性會(huì)兌現(xiàn)其威脅。

Given all of that, Bruce Wolpe, a senior fellow at Australia's United States Studies Centre, believes there is a 90 percent chance Trump will follow through with his threat to strike Iran's civilian infrastructure, in what would be a significant escalation of the war.

特朗普一向傾向于保留“出其不意”的空間，其授權(quán)軍事行動(dòng)時(shí)通常缺乏明確預(yù)告。而此次不同，他將條件與時(shí)間表完全公開。這種高度具體化的表態(tài)，也在一定程度上壓縮了其政策回旋空間。

一旦未能達(dá)成協(xié)議卻又選擇收手，外界很可能將其視為特朗普本任期內(nèi)最典型的一次“TACO時(shí)刻”，并在象征意義上為伊朗帶來一場(chǎng)重要?jiǎng)倮?/p>

When he authorises attacks, it tends to be with little direct warning. In this case, it's all out in the open.

That's awfully specific, and it gives him little room to move if there is no deal.

If he were to back down from the ledge, it would be the biggest TACO moment of this term, and hand Iran a huge symbolic victory.

值得注意的是，在伊朗問題上，特朗普“強(qiáng)硬表態(tài)—隨后收縮”的情況已多次出現(xiàn)。

美聯(lián)社報(bào)道稱，特朗普最早將最后期限設(shè)在3月23日，但此后數(shù)周內(nèi)不斷反復(fù)，在強(qiáng)硬威脅、宣布延期以及聲稱談判“進(jìn)展順利”等表態(tài)之間來回?fù)u擺，甚至有時(shí)在同一段講話中同時(shí)釋放相互矛盾的信號(hào)。

Trump's previous deadline was for March 23, but that shifted several times over the ensuing weeks as Trump oscillated between heated threats, announced delays and proclamations that the negotiations were going well, sometimes in the same statement.

ensuing /?n?sju???/ 隨后的

oscillate /??s?le?t/ 動(dòng)搖

那么，這一次，局勢(shì)將如何發(fā)展？

來源：世紀(jì)報(bào) 美聯(lián)社 哥倫比亞廣播公司

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