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期刊介紹：

《Journal of Risk and Uncertainty》為雙月刊，每年6期，每期發(fā)表文章4篇左右。2022-2023年影響影子為4.7，JCR分區(qū)為Q1，是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與保險(xiǎn)領(lǐng)域的頂級權(quán)威學(xué)術(shù)期刊。該期刊以研究不確定性下的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)行為和決策分析的理論或?qū)嵶C文章為特色，涵蓋的主題包括：決策理論和不確定性經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、不確定性下的選擇心理模型、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和公共政策、不確定性下的行為實(shí)證分析，以及對現(xiàn)實(shí)世界風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)行為的實(shí)證研究。

本期看點(diǎn)：

●在個(gè)體跨期決策的實(shí)證研究中，同時(shí)納入經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)不耐性指標(biāo)與心理學(xué)堅(jiān)毅度量指標(biāo)具有潛在價(jià)值。

●在對受訪者進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)態(tài)度研究時(shí)，基于激勵(lì)性測量的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)容忍度更為穩(wěn)定，而基于調(diào)查的測量則表現(xiàn)出更高的敏感性，并在遭遇負(fù)面沖擊時(shí)出現(xiàn)下降。

●趨勢支配（trend dominance）：當(dāng)通過圖表呈現(xiàn)一系列結(jié)果時(shí)，人們在評估中傾向于偏好“隨時(shí)間改善”的趨勢，即使這種偏好會導(dǎo)致整體福利顯著降低。但趨勢支配并不反映真實(shí)偏好。

●受試者的視覺注意力隨呈現(xiàn)信息變化，眼動數(shù)據(jù)不僅與偏好參數(shù)相關(guān)，還會改變對哪種決策理論更適合解釋選擇數(shù)據(jù)的推斷。

●期望管理理論（Managed Expectations Theory）：個(gè)體對結(jié)果好壞的事前概率評估可作為參考點(diǎn)，塑造彩票結(jié)果的事后效用。期望管理理論核心假設(shè)包括：參考點(diǎn)假設(shè)和人為概率假設(shè)。

●Daniel Kahneman最后一項(xiàng)工作削弱了近期將收入再分配簡單納入收益成本分析的論點(diǎn)，提示此類政策目標(biāo)仍更適合通過財(cái)政政策而非監(jiān)管干預(yù)來實(shí)現(xiàn)。

●查詢理論（Query Theory, QT）提供了一種關(guān)于偏好構(gòu)建的心理過程理論，闡釋了注意力過程和記憶動態(tài)如何導(dǎo)致框架效應(yīng)及其他判斷與選擇異常。QT的過程性解釋——將框架效應(yīng)歸因于注意力轉(zhuǎn)移及隨后的記憶檢索差異——可為PT的損失規(guī)避提供一定的心理過程解釋。

●自然選擇會使決策偏向在祖先環(huán)境中理性的選擇，但在現(xiàn)代環(huán)境中可能不適用，從而產(chǎn)生表面上非理性但規(guī)律可預(yù)測的結(jié)果。

●時(shí)間偏好：人類傾向于高估即時(shí)回報(bào)而低估同等未來回報(bào)，這一現(xiàn)象被稱為時(shí)間折現(xiàn)。人們能夠直接根據(jù)環(huán)境約束調(diào)整延遲折現(xiàn)，而不依賴情緒系統(tǒng)的輸入。

※ 本期目錄

第70卷 第3期

●Grit, discounting, & time inconsistency

●The evolution of risk attitudes: A panel study of the university years

●Trend dominance

●Visual formats in risk preference elicitation: What catches the eye?

第71卷 第1期

●Managed Expectations Theory: Ex ante likelihoods influence ex post utilities

●Daniel Kahneman’s underappreciated last published paper: Empirical implications for benefit-cost analysis and a chat session discussion with bots

●A meta-analysis of query theory, a psychological process account of framing effects

●Linking cognitive biases: The successes of a test case that predicted variations in endowment effect magnitudes

●Adapting temporal preference to scarcity: A role for emotion?

Grit, discounting, & time inconsistency

堅(jiān)毅、折現(xiàn)與時(shí)間不一致性

作者

Christian K?nig-Kersting（奧地利因斯布魯克大學(xué) 銀行與金融系），Stefan T. Trautmann（德國海德堡大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究所行為金融學(xué)教席；荷蘭蒂爾堡大學(xué)）

摘要：We study the association of the perseverance of effort and the consistency of interests components of the psychological measure of grit with economic measures of impatience and time inconsistency in the general population. We find that impatience is associated with grit through the perseverance of effort component. No association of time inconsistency with grit is found. Predicting participants’ financial and health outcomes and behaviors, we find that impatience and grit are predictive for both outcomes, but this is not the case for time inconsistency. Our findings suggest that it can be beneficial for empirical studies of intertemporal decisions to include economic impatience and psychological grit measures.

本文研究心理學(xué)“堅(jiān)毅”度量的兩個(gè)組成維度——努力的堅(jiān)持性與興趣的一致性——與經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)指標(biāo)中的不耐性和時(shí)間不一致性之間的關(guān)系。結(jié)果顯示，不耐性與堅(jiān)毅中的努力堅(jiān)持性顯著相關(guān)，而時(shí)間不一致性與堅(jiān)毅無顯著關(guān)聯(lián)。進(jìn)一步預(yù)測參與者的財(cái)務(wù)和健康結(jié)果及相關(guān)行為時(shí)，我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，不耐性和堅(jiān)毅均具有顯著作用，而時(shí)間不一致性未表現(xiàn)出顯著影響。研究結(jié)果表明，在跨期決策的實(shí)證研究中，同時(shí)納入經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)不耐性指標(biāo)與心理學(xué)堅(jiān)毅測量具有潛在價(jià)值。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09456-8

The evolution of risk attitudes: A panel study of the university years

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)態(tài)度的演變：一項(xiàng)針對大學(xué)生的追蹤研究

作者

Catherine Eckel（美國德克薩斯農(nóng)工大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)系），Rick Wilson（美國萊斯大學(xué)政治學(xué)系），Nanyin Yang（澳大利亞悉尼大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)院）

摘要：We analyze a unique longitudinal dataset of university students to investigate the stability of risk preferences over a five-year period. Our findings indicate that subjects’ risk tolerance, as measured by incentivized lottery choices, tends to increase over time, while it moves in the opposite direction when assessed through a non-incentivized survey question. Furthermore, we exploit the COVID-19 pandemic to explore the impact of negative experiences and emotions on the temporal changes in subjects’ risk preferences. Our analysis reveals that, within the same group of respondents, the risk tolerance elicited by the incentivized measure proves to be more stable, whereas the survey measure exhibits greater sensitivity, declining in response to negative shocks. These results enhance our understanding of how risk preferences evolve over time and emphasize the importance of employing appropriate measurement methods when investigating risk attitudes.

我們利用一項(xiàng)針對大學(xué)生的獨(dú)特縱向數(shù)據(jù)集，研究了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好在五年期間的穩(wěn)定性。研究結(jié)果表明，當(dāng)通過激勵(lì)性彩票選擇測量時(shí)，受試者的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)容忍度隨時(shí)間呈上升趨勢；但通過非激勵(lì)性的調(diào)查問題測量時(shí)，則呈相反方向變化。此外，我們利用新冠疫情這一外生沖擊，探討了負(fù)面經(jīng)歷和情緒對受試者風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好隨時(shí)間變化的影響。分析結(jié)果顯示，在同一組受訪者中，基于激勵(lì)性測量的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)容忍度更為穩(wěn)定，而基于調(diào)查的測量則表現(xiàn)出更高的敏感性，并在遭遇負(fù)面沖擊時(shí)出現(xiàn)下降。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)加深了我們對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好隨時(shí)間演變的理解，并強(qiáng)調(diào)在研究風(fēng)險(xiǎn)態(tài)度時(shí)采用適當(dāng)測量方法的重要性。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09457-7

Trend dominance

趨勢支配

作者

Markus Prior（美國普林斯頓大學(xué)公共與國際事務(wù)學(xué)院及政治學(xué)系），Talbot M. Andrews（美國康奈爾大學(xué)政府學(xué)系）

摘要：People prefer for things to get better over time when evaluating series of outcomes presented in graphs, even at the expense of substantial overall welfare. We refer to this empirical regularity as trend dominance, and demonstrate it across domains including economic growth, environmental outcomes, and the COVID vaccine rollout. We apply a succinct measurement instrument to empirically calibrate trend dominance, characterizing individual-level variation in how much total welfare individuals sacrifice in exchange for increasing trends. Across several experiments conducted on a NORC probability sample as well as convenience samples, we present evidence that trend dominance does not reflect genuine preferences. Trend dominance is, at least in part, a product of respondents struggling to identify the total benefits presented in a sequence and assuming trends continue beyond the plotted sequence. Media organizations, policymakers, and public health authorities routinely use sequence plots to illustrate forecasts and projections, but people’s evaluations of these charts often do not reflect preferences. If people internalize these (ill-considered) evaluations, or if the evaluations bias their behavior, the significance of these distortions extends to affecting behavior directly. Designers of graphs should take into account the biases people bring to visual presentations of over-time data.

當(dāng)通過圖表呈現(xiàn)一系列結(jié)果時(shí)，人們在評估中傾向于偏好“隨時(shí)間改善”的趨勢，即使這種偏好會導(dǎo)致整體福利顯著降低。我們將這一經(jīng)驗(yàn)規(guī)律稱為趨勢支配（trend dominance），并在多個(gè)領(lǐng)域加以驗(yàn)證，包括經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、環(huán)境結(jié)果以及新冠疫苗推廣。我們使用簡潔的測量工具，對趨勢支配進(jìn)行實(shí)證校準(zhǔn)，并刻畫個(gè)體在“為獲得上升趨勢而犧牲多少總福利”上的差異�；贜ORC概率樣本及便利樣本開展的多項(xiàng)實(shí)驗(yàn)表明，趨勢支配并不反映真實(shí)偏好。趨勢支配至少部分源于受訪者難以識別序列呈現(xiàn)的總收益，并假設(shè)趨勢會延續(xù)至圖表之外。媒體機(jī)構(gòu)、政策制定者及公共衛(wèi)生部門在展示預(yù)測和推算時(shí)，常采用序列圖表，但人們對這些圖表的評價(jià)往往并不代表其真實(shí)偏好。如果人們內(nèi)化這些（缺乏深思的）評價(jià)，或這些評價(jià)影響其行為，則這種偏差的意義將直接擴(kuò)展至行為層面。因此，圖表設(shè)計(jì)者應(yīng)充分考慮人們在解釋時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)時(shí)所帶來的認(rèn)知偏差。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09454-w

Visual formats in risk preference elicitation: What catches the eye?

風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好引導(dǎo)中的可視化呈現(xiàn)形式：視覺注意力的作用

作者

Michelle S. Segovia（美國特拉華大學(xué)應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)與統(tǒng)計(jì)系），Marco A. Palma（美國德克薩斯農(nóng)工大學(xué)農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)系），Jayson L. Lusk（美國俄克拉荷馬州立大學(xué)農(nóng)業(yè)科學(xué)與自然資源系），Andreas C. Drichoutis（希臘雅典農(nóng)業(yè)大學(xué)應(yīng)用經(jīng)濟(jì)與社會科學(xué)學(xué)院農(nóng)業(yè)經(jīng)濟(jì)與農(nóng)村發(fā)展系）

摘要：We explore the effect of lottery presentation formats on elicitation of risk preferences using a popular probability varying task (Holt & Laury. The American Economic Review 92 (5), 1644–1655. 2002) and a payoff-varying task (Drichoutis & Lusk. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 53 (2), 89–106. 2016). The presentation formats use horizontal bars that vary either the width or height of the bars (or both at the same time) to help subjects in judging how large or small probabilities and monetary amounts are in a given choice set. These graphical formats are compared to a text only format. We complement our choice data with eye tracking data that enriches our structural models with additional information regarding how visual attention varies with the presented information. While we find no statistically significant effects of presentation formats on elicited parameters for risk preferences, we find that eye tracking information not only is associated with preference parameters, but it also changes the inferences with respect to which decision theory better fits the choice data.

本文研究彩票呈現(xiàn)形式對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好引導(dǎo)的影響，采用了概率變化任務(wù)（Holt & Laury, 2002）和收益變化任務(wù)（Drichoutis & Lusk, 2016）。呈現(xiàn)形式通過水平條的寬度或高度變化（或同時(shí)變化）來幫助受試者判斷給定選擇集中的概率大小及金額規(guī)模。這些圖形形式與只有文本呈現(xiàn)的形式進(jìn)行了對比。我們還結(jié)合了眼動追蹤數(shù)據(jù)，為結(jié)構(gòu)模型提供額外信息，以揭示受試者的視覺注意力如何隨呈現(xiàn)信息變化。結(jié)果顯示，雖然呈現(xiàn)形式對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好參數(shù)本身沒有顯著統(tǒng)計(jì)影響，但眼動數(shù)據(jù)不僅與偏好參數(shù)相關(guān)，還會改變對哪種決策理論更適合解釋選擇數(shù)據(jù)的推斷。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09455-9

Managed Expectations Theory: Ex ante likelihoods influence ex post utilities

期望管理理論：事前概率影響事后效用

作者

Richard J. Zeckhauser（美國哈佛大學(xué)肯尼迪政府學(xué)院），W. Kip Viscusi（美國范德堡大學(xué)法學(xué)院）

摘要：Daniel Kahneman, often in collaboration with Amos Tversky, developed foundational frameworks for understanding human decision-making. Building on that tradition, this article proposes that individuals’ ex ante assessments of the likelihood of good and bad outcomes serve as reference points that shape the ex post utility of lottery outcomes. In prospect theory, prior holdings act as reference points for evaluating outcomes—but probabilities themselves play no such role. This article introduces Managed Expectations Theory, which rests on two core hypotheses:

Reference Point Hypothesis: Ex ante probabilities serve as reference points for ex post utility. Specifically, more pessimistic expectations about uncertain outcomes enhance ex post utility, regardless of whether the outcome turns out to be good or bad.

Four experiments, using a nationally representative adult sample of over 1,000 participants, strongly support this hypothesis. Lower [higher] ex ante likelihoods are associated with greater ex post utility for good [bad] outcomes.

Created Likelihoods Hypothesis: Recognizing that likelihood assessments act as reference points, individuals deliberately manage these assessments to be more pessimistic than an objective or statistical “outside view”—in order to boost their ex post utilities.

Supporting this conjecture, the good outcomes participants labeled as “l(fā)ikely” occurred far more often than the bad outcomes they labeled as “l(fā)ikely.” These created likelihoods help explain a central feature of prospect theory’s probability weighting function: the underestimation of high-probability good events and the overestimation of low-probability bad events.

Daniel Kahneman與Amos Tversky合作，建立了理解人類決策的基礎(chǔ)框架。在此傳統(tǒng)基礎(chǔ)上，本文提出，個(gè)體對結(jié)果好壞的事前概率評估可作為參考點(diǎn)，塑造彩票結(jié)果的事后效用。在前景理論中，先前持有量作為參考點(diǎn)來評估結(jié)果，但概率本身并不起此作用。本文提出期望管理理論（Managed Expectations Theory），其核心假設(shè)包括：

1.參考點(diǎn)假設(shè)（Reference Point Hypothesis）：事前概率作為事后效用的參考點(diǎn)。具體而言，對不確定結(jié)果的更悲觀預(yù)期會增強(qiáng)事后效用，無論結(jié)果是好還是壞。

基于一項(xiàng)包含超過1,000名具有全國代表性的成年人樣本的四個(gè)實(shí)驗(yàn)，強(qiáng)烈支持該假設(shè)。實(shí)驗(yàn)顯示，較低（較高）的事前概率與好（壞）結(jié)果的更高事后效用相關(guān)。

2.人為概率假設(shè)（Created Likelihoods Hypothesis）：認(rèn)識到概率評估充當(dāng)參考點(diǎn)后，個(gè)體會故意使這些評估比客觀或統(tǒng)計(jì)“外部視角”更悲觀，從而提高事后效用。

支持這一假設(shè)的證據(jù)為：參與者標(biāo)記為“可能發(fā)生”的好結(jié)果出現(xiàn)頻率遠(yuǎn)高于標(biāo)記為“可能發(fā)生”的壞結(jié)果。這種人為概率有助于解釋前景理論概率加權(quán)函數(shù)的核心特征：高概率好事件被低估，而低概率壞事件被高估。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09462-w

Daniel Kahneman’s underappreciated last published paper: Empirical implications for benefit-cost analysis and a chat session discussion with bots

Daniel Kahneman鮮為人知的最后一篇論文：對收益成本分析的實(shí)證啟示及與聊天機(jī)器人討論

作者

C. Monica Capra（美國克萊蒙特研究生大學(xué)；美國亞利桑那大學(xué)自由哲學(xué)研究中心），Thomas J. Kniesner（美國雪城大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)名譽(yù)教授；德國波恩勞動經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)研究所（IZA）；美國克萊蒙特研究生大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)科學(xué)系）

摘要：Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman’s last published paper is an adversarial collaboration in which he and Matthew Killingsworth reconcile conflicting empirical results from their previous research on income and reported happiness, with Barbara Mellers as a facilitator. The empirical results use quantile regression to allow for measured income heterogeneity effects that include notch points in the estimated marginal utilities of income. Our analysis examines Kahneman’s last paper’s conceptual innovations and challenges to assumptions about diminishing marginal utility of income. We review his contributions to emotional well-being measurement and employ a novel AI-simulated dialogue between the late Amos Tversky and Sir Angus Deaton to explore interdisciplinary perspectives on the findings. Our paper demonstrates how Kahneman’s final research undermines recent arguments for incorporating income redistribution simply into benefit-cost analysis, suggesting that such objectives remain better addressed through fiscal policy rather than regulatory interventions. His final published work exemplifies Kahneman’s commitment to empirical precision and theoretical flexibility, even when contradicting his earlier conclusions.

諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)得主Daniel Kahneman的最后一篇發(fā)表論文是一項(xiàng)對抗性合作（adversarial collaboration）研究，他與Matthew Killingsworth和Barbara Mellers合作完成，對此前關(guān)于收入與報(bào)告幸福感研究中存在的實(shí)證結(jié)果沖突進(jìn)行了整合。該實(shí)證結(jié)果采用分位回歸方法，以考慮收入異質(zhì)性對邊際效用估計(jì)的影響，包括邊際效用估計(jì)中的“躍點(diǎn)”（notch points）。本文分析了Kahneman最后一篇論文的概念創(chuàng)新，以及對收入邊際效用遞減假設(shè)的挑戰(zhàn)。我們回顧了他在情感幸福感測量方面的貢獻(xiàn)，并通過一種模擬人工智能對話——已故Amos Tversky與Sir Angus Deaton的虛擬討論——探討跨學(xué)科視角下的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)。研究表明，Kahneman的最后工作削弱了近期將收入再分配簡單納入收益成本分析的論點(diǎn)，提示此類政策目標(biāo)仍更適合通過財(cái)政政策而非監(jiān)管干預(yù)來實(shí)現(xiàn)。這篇最終發(fā)表的論文體現(xiàn)了Kahneman對實(shí)證精確性與理論靈活性的堅(jiān)持，即便這些發(fā)現(xiàn)與他早期結(jié)論相矛盾。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09459-5

A meta-analysis of query theory, a psychological process account of framing effects

查詢理論的元分析：對框架效應(yīng)的心理過程解釋

作者

Jordana W. Composto（美國普林斯頓大學(xué)），Shannon M. Duncan（美國賓夕法尼亞大學(xué)），Eric J. Johnson（美國哥倫比亞大學(xué)），Elke U. Weber（美國普林斯頓大學(xué)）

摘要：Query Theory (QT) offers a psychological process theory of preference construction that shows how attentional processes and memory dynamics give rise to framing effects and other judgment and choice anomalies. These same anomalies are also modeled by Prospect Theory (PT) and its functional or "as-if" account, particularly through its feature of loss aversion. Given the lack of clear evidence that loss aversion results from differences in emotional reactions to gains versus losses, it is worth asking whether QT's process account—which explains framing effects as resulting from attentional shifts and subsequent differences in memory retrieval—provides a psychological process account of the loss-aversion feature of PT. Since QT's introduction in 2007, a series of studies have examined its accounts of framing effects in risky choice, intertemporal choice, and multi-attribute decisions. The present review used meta-analytic techniques to evaluate the main claims of QT by synthesizing findings from 27 papers. Across three meta-analyses, we find that (1) decision frame significantly affects query order (d?=?0.34, CI95?=?[0.27,0.41], n?=?11,202), (2) QT mechanisms (query order and content) partially mediate the effect of decision frame on choice, and (3) manipulating query order decreases the effect of decision frame on choice from d?=?0.92 (CI95?=?[0.74,1.09], n?=?1,680) to d?=?0.39 (CI95?=?[0.25,0.53], n?=?1,720).

查詢理論（Query Theory, QT）提供了一種關(guān)于偏好構(gòu)建的心理過程理論，闡釋了注意力過程和記憶動態(tài)如何導(dǎo)致框架效應(yīng)及其他判斷與選擇異常。類似的異常現(xiàn)象也可通過前景理論（Prospect Theory, PT）及其功能性或“如若”解釋建模，尤其體現(xiàn)在損失規(guī)避（loss aversion）特征上。然而，關(guān)于損失規(guī)避是否源于對收益與損失的情緒反應(yīng)差異尚無明確證據(jù)，因此值得探討QT的過程性解釋——將框架效應(yīng)歸因于注意力轉(zhuǎn)移及隨后的記憶檢索差異——是否可為PT的損失規(guī)避提供心理過程解釋。自2007年QT提出以來，一系列研究考察了其對風(fēng)險(xiǎn)選擇、跨期選擇及多屬性決策中框架效應(yīng)的解釋。本文采用元分析技術(shù)綜合了27篇論文的研究結(jié)果，對QT的主要主張進(jìn)行評估。三項(xiàng)元分析結(jié)果顯示：（1）決策框架顯著影響查詢順序（d=0.34,CI95=[0.27,0.41],n=11,202）；（2）QT機(jī)制（查詢順序和內(nèi)容）部分中介了決策框架對選擇的影響；（3）操控查詢順序可顯著降低決策框架對選擇的影響，從d=0.92(CI95= [0.74,1.09],n=1,680)降至d=0.39(CI95= [0.25,0.53],n=1,720)。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09458-6

Linking cognitive biases: The successes of a test case that predicted variations in endowment effect magnitudes

認(rèn)知偏差的關(guān)聯(lián)：一個(gè)成功案例對稟賦效應(yīng)大小差異的預(yù)測

作者

Owen D Jones（美國范德堡大學(xué)法律、腦科學(xué)與行為研究Weave家族講席教授；法學(xué)教授、生物科學(xué)教授；Weaver Family Program on Law, Brain Sciences, and Behavior項(xiàng)目主任）

摘要：Cognitive biases are patterned decisions that deviate from the predictions of rational-choice models. They often have profound and adverse impacts on behavior, making them important to understand. The common approach to them catalogs empirical regularities that exist but lacks a sound theoretical foundation to explain and predict why the biases exist, why they are patterned as they are, and how we can best predict new and deeper patterns. The approach described here can provide such a foundation, link cognitive biases together (as a function of common underlying psychological processes), and increase our predictive power. This article reviews a 20-year arc of research that tested whether looking at cognitive biases through the lens of evolutionary biology—essentially, at how all brains are shaped to have behavioral leanings—can illuminate the origins of biases and thereby enable useful, testable predictions. The test case centers on the “endowment effect” and led to four interconnected discoveries about how, when, and where the endowment effect arises. It culminated in the successful prediction of a very large percentage of the variance in endowment effect magnitudes across a large new set of items—something never before accomplished. The key fact is that natural selection can bias decision-making toward choices that were rational in ancestral conditions but are mismatched to modern environments, yielding outcomes that are irrational yet predictably patterned. More broadly, the success of this test case suggests that many other cognitive biases may be similarly approached and potentially linked by this predictively useful framework.

認(rèn)知偏差是偏離理性選擇模型預(yù)測的規(guī)律性決策行為。它們常常對行為產(chǎn)生深遠(yuǎn)且負(fù)面的影響，因此理解它們非常重要。傳統(tǒng)研究方法通常只是整理已存在的經(jīng)驗(yàn)規(guī)律，卻缺乏解釋和預(yù)測這些偏差存在原因、形成模式及其潛在新規(guī)律的理論基礎(chǔ)。本文所述的方法能夠提供這樣的理論基礎(chǔ)，將認(rèn)知偏差聯(lián)系起來（作為共同心理過程的函數(shù)），并增強(qiáng)預(yù)測能力。本文回顧了長達(dá)20年的研究歷程，考察了從進(jìn)化生物學(xué)角度理解認(rèn)知偏差——即腦如何在進(jìn)化中形成特定行為傾向——是否能夠揭示偏差起源，并生成可檢驗(yàn)的預(yù)測。研究以稟賦效應(yīng)（endowment effect）為測試案例，取得了四項(xiàng)互相關(guān)聯(lián)的發(fā)現(xiàn)，揭示了稟賦效應(yīng)產(chǎn)生的機(jī)制、時(shí)機(jī)與場景。最終，研究成功預(yù)測了新一批物品中稟賦效應(yīng)幅度的絕大部分差異，這在此前研究中尚未實(shí)現(xiàn)。核心結(jié)論是：自然選擇會使決策偏向在祖先環(huán)境中理性的選擇，但在現(xiàn)代環(huán)境中可能不適用，從而產(chǎn)生表面上非理性但規(guī)律可預(yù)測的結(jié)果。更廣泛地說，這一測試案例的成功表明，許多其他認(rèn)知偏差也可能通過這一具有預(yù)測力的框架加以研究和關(guān)聯(lián)。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09460-y

Adapting temporal preference to scarcity: A role for emotion?

在稀缺條件下調(diào)整時(shí)間偏好：情緒的作用？

作者

Bastien Blain（英國倫敦大學(xué)學(xué)院實(shí)驗(yàn)心理學(xué)系 情感腦實(shí)驗(yàn)室；Max Planck UCL計(jì)算精神病學(xué)與衰老研究中心；法國巴黎潘提翁-索邦大學(xué)CNRS 索邦經(jīng)濟(jì)中心），Laura K. Globig（美國紐約大學(xué) 心理學(xué)與神經(jīng)科學(xué)系；英國倫敦大學(xué)學(xué)院實(shí)驗(yàn)心理學(xué)系情感腦實(shí)驗(yàn)室；Max Planck UCL計(jì)算精神病學(xué)與衰老研究中心），Tali Sharot（英國倫敦大學(xué)學(xué)院實(shí)驗(yàn)心理學(xué)系情感腦實(shí)驗(yàn)室；Max Planck UCL計(jì)算精神病學(xué)與衰老研究中心；美國麻省理工學(xué)院腦與認(rèn)知科學(xué)系）

摘要：A critical optimization problem is how to distribute resource consumption over time. Humans tend to value immediate rewards over equivalent future rewards—a phenomenon called temporal discounting. Such imbalance can lead to poor health, education, and financial decisions. It is also a hurdle for implementing sustainability policies. A major research goal is to identify factors that influence temporal discounting, so that policymakers could develop interventions to correct for this imbalance. One such factor is available resources; scarcity may increase in temporal discounting. Another potential factor is emotion; negative emotions may lead to high temporal discounting. However, emotion and resources are not independent. For example, losing a large sum of money will lead to negative affect. Here, we take advantage of one of the largest global ‘income shocks’ in history, to tease apart the role of emotion and income on temporal discounting. We tested 1,145 individuals as the market was crashing in late March 2020 and unemployment rising and then retested 200 of those individuals as the market was recovering in June 2020. We found that income shock was strongly related to an increase in delay discounting using cross-sectional and longitudinal data. Importantly, this relationship was independent of the negative impact on affect. These findings suggest that, contrary to wide held assumptions, people directly adapt delay discounting to environmental constraints, without the need for input from the affective system. This independence may be adaptive, as affect is a noisy reflection of environmental constraints, which may lead to suboptimal choice.

資源分配隨時(shí)間優(yōu)化是一個(gè)關(guān)鍵問題。人類傾向于高估即時(shí)回報(bào)而低估同等未來回報(bào)，這一現(xiàn)象被稱為時(shí)間折現(xiàn)（temporal discounting）。這種偏向可能導(dǎo)致健康、教育和財(cái)務(wù)決策不佳，同時(shí)也是可持續(xù)政策實(shí)施的障礙。研究的主要目標(biāo)之一是識別影響時(shí)間折現(xiàn)的因素，以便政策制定者能設(shè)計(jì)干預(yù)措施糾正這種偏差�？捎觅Y源是一個(gè)重要因素：資源稀缺可能增加時(shí)間折現(xiàn)。另一個(gè)潛在因素是情緒：負(fù)面情緒可能導(dǎo)致高時(shí)間折現(xiàn)。然而，情緒與資源并非獨(dú)立，例如，大額金錢損失會引發(fā)負(fù)面情緒。本文利用歷史上最大規(guī)模的全球“收入沖擊”之一，區(qū)分情緒與收入對時(shí)間折現(xiàn)的作用。研究對象為1,145名個(gè)體，測試時(shí)間為2020年3月底市場崩盤、失業(yè)率上升期間，并在2020年6月市場恢復(fù)時(shí)，對其中200名個(gè)體進(jìn)行復(fù)測。結(jié)果顯示，收入沖擊與延遲折現(xiàn)增加密切相關(guān)，無論是橫截面還是縱向數(shù)據(jù)均如此。重要的是，這一關(guān)系獨(dú)立于負(fù)面情緒的影響。這些發(fā)現(xiàn)表明，與普遍假設(shè)相反，人們能夠直接根據(jù)環(huán)境約束調(diào)整延遲折現(xiàn)，而不依賴情緒系統(tǒng)的輸入。這種獨(dú)立性可能具有適應(yīng)性，因?yàn)榍榫w僅是環(huán)境約束的噪聲反映，可能導(dǎo)致次優(yōu)決策。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11166-025-09453-x

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