夏 璐

中國人民大學國家發(fā)展與戰(zhàn)略研究院研究員

Building on the solid achievements during the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period, China's economy is entering a critical stage for high-quality development to be guided by the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30).

Over the next five years, China will focus on the goal of rejuvenating the nation through advancing Chinese modernization. Key breakthroughs are expected across multiple dimensions, including technological innovation, green transformation, and the digital economy.

China will accelerate the development of a national strategic technology system, focusing on frontier fields such as artificial intelligence (AI), quantum computing and aerospace exploration. Major scientific and technological projects with strategic, systemic, and forward-looking significance are expected to be launched.

A full-chain coordination mechanism - from basic research to technological breakthroughs, scenario applications, and industrial transformation - will be established. Central government fiscal funding, local pilot platforms, collaboration among state-owned enterprises, private companies, universities, and research institutes, along with venture capital and long-term investment, will help overcome obstacles to turning technological advantages into economic gains.

Guided by its dual carbon goals, China aims to lead a green industrial revolution. During the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period, non-fossil energy is expected to account for about 25 percent of primary energy consumption. Annual growth in new energy storage capacity will remain at a high level, and zero-carbon industries - such as green methanol, green hydrogen, and sustainable aviation fuels - will move from demonstration projects to large-scale applications.

China will improve the digital levels of its economy and society through comprehensive digitalization. Digital development will move from the consumer internet to deeper industrial applications, and 5G/6G integrated networks will expand nationwide, while industrial internet identification systems will cover all major sectors. A foundational system for data as a key economic resource will be fully established.

To address the nation's problem of aging population, policies will focus on the quality of human resource development.

Fertility support will be enhanced through expanded tax deductions, financial subsidies for multi-child families, and parental leave reforms. At the same time, the silver economy will grow. Coordinated home- and community-based care networks, nationwide long-term care insurance, and age-friendly infrastructure upgrades in housing, transportation, and culture-tourism will help create vast market opportunities.

China will further advance high-level opening-up, reduce the negative list for foreign investment, and expand services-sector pilot programs to the northeast and central and western regions. After the Hainan Free Trade Port officially launches its island-wide independent customs operation in December 2025, more opening-up policies are expected to be implemented in key regions such as Hengqin in Zhuhai, and Qianhai in Shenzhen, South China's Guangdong Province. The internationalization of the yuan will advance from a settlement currency in international trade to investment and reserve currency, with the yuan's offshore markets being expanded across multiple locations in the world.

During the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25), China achieved notable progress: Technological innovation accelerated, absolute poverty was eliminated, and environmental quality was improved. In the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30), the focus will shift to high-quality development: transforming innovation from quantitative accumulation to qualitative leaps, turning green initiatives into organic drivers of growth, and improving the quality of people's lives.

Despite persistent challenges from external "decoupling" and protectionism, and domestic economic pressures, experience shows that such challenges can catalyze reform and external pressure can help drive internal upgrades. By deepening reforms, expanding openness, and adhering to the innovation-driven strategy, China is expected to achieve new breakthroughs in high-quality economic development over the next five years.

文章來源：《GLOBAL TIMES》

微信編輯：張菁菁

人大國發(fā)院是中國人民大學集全校之力重點打造的中國特色新型高校智庫，現(xiàn)任理事長為學校黨委書記張東剛，現(xiàn)任院長為校長林尚立。2015年入選全國首批“國家高端智庫”建設(shè)試點單位，并入選全球智庫百強，2018年初在“中國大學智庫機構(gòu)百強排行榜”中名列第一。2019年在國家高端智庫綜合評估中入選第一檔次梯隊，是唯一入選第一檔次梯隊的高校智庫。

人大國發(fā)院積極打造“新平臺、大網(wǎng)絡(luò)，跨學科、重交叉，促創(chuàng)新、高產(chǎn)出”的高端智庫平臺。圍繞經(jīng)濟治理與經(jīng)濟發(fā)展、政治治理與法治建設(shè)、社會治理與社會創(chuàng)新、公共外交與國際關(guān)系四大研究領(lǐng)域，匯聚全校一流學科優(yōu)質(zhì)資源，在基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)、決策咨詢、公共外交、理論創(chuàng)新、輿論引導和內(nèi)部治理等方面取得了顯著成效。人大國發(fā)院以“中國特色新型高校智庫的引領(lǐng)者”為目標，扎根中國大地，堅守國家戰(zhàn)略，秉承時代使命，致力于建設(shè)成為具有全球影響力的世界一流大學智庫。

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