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期刊介紹：

The Geneva Risk and Insurance Review（《日內(nèi)瓦風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與保險(xiǎn)評(píng)論》，簡(jiǎn)稱GRIR）是由日內(nèi)瓦協(xié)會(huì)（The Geneva Association）出版的學(xué)術(shù)期刊，同時(shí)也是歐洲風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與保險(xiǎn)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家協(xié)會(huì)（European Group of Risk and Insurance Economists）的官方期刊。GRIR的研究范圍廣泛，包括保險(xiǎn)產(chǎn)品和市場(chǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、不確定性下的決策理論、個(gè)人、公司和社會(huì)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)或風(fēng)險(xiǎn)緩解機(jī)制。特別關(guān)注與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分擔(dān)和緩解機(jī)制相關(guān)的市場(chǎng)失靈問(wèn)題，例如由信息摩擦和激勵(lì)問(wèn)題引起的市場(chǎng)失靈，以及政府在通過(guò)監(jiān)管或社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)提供風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方面的作用。期刊的出版周期為每年兩期，分別在3月和9月發(fā)布。

本期看點(diǎn)：

●現(xiàn)有個(gè)體的不確定性偏好測(cè)度的預(yù)測(cè)力有限。不確定性及其影響是經(jīng)濟(jì)政策制定的關(guān)鍵考量。

●基于結(jié)構(gòu)模型估計(jì)表明，健康保險(xiǎn)雖能通過(guò)提升醫(yī)療支出對(duì)壽命產(chǎn)生積極影響，但該影響程度在統(tǒng)計(jì)上并不顯著。

●基于德國(guó)私人健康保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的分析，盡管傭金上限政策確實(shí)降低了支付給中介的傭金水平，有效抑制了替代性保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的保單置換現(xiàn)象，但卻未能顯著降低健康保險(xiǎn)公司的總獲客成本，保險(xiǎn)公司仍可輕易通過(guò)其他渠道規(guī)避監(jiān)管約束。

●通過(guò)考慮個(gè)體預(yù)防措施相互作用的模型，研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，預(yù)防措施可能呈現(xiàn)供給不足或過(guò)度供給的狀態(tài)。應(yīng)用于COVID-19感染風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析，論證了政策干預(yù)（如強(qiáng)制佩戴口罩）的必要性。

●健康對(duì)自我防護(hù)的影響尤其取決于個(gè)體屬于消費(fèi)健康關(guān)聯(lián)偏好型還是關(guān)聯(lián)厭惡型，這一關(guān)鍵發(fā)現(xiàn)揭示了健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策中時(shí)間維度與偏好結(jié)構(gòu)的交互機(jī)制。

※ 本期目錄

●Measuring uncertainty preferences: what we know and what we need

●Does health insurance extend life expectancy? Evidence from a structural estimation

●Lowering acquisition costs with a commission cap? Evidence from the German private health insurance market

●Interaction in prevention: a general theory and an application to COVID-19 pandemic

●Self-protection against a health risk and saving: an analysis of income and health effects

Measuring uncertainty preferences: what we know and what we need

不確定性偏好的測(cè)度：已知與待解

作者

Martin G. Kocher （維也納大學(xué)）

摘要：We often want to predict individual behavior under uncertainty in relevant decision-making settings based on the elicitation of individual uncertainty attitudes. This paper surveys different approaches to measure uncertainty preferences and studies that correlate measured preferences with decision-making behavior in different domains such as finance or insurance. We argue that the predictive power of elicited preferences in many studies is limited and suggest several potential ways forward for future research.

我們常常希望通過(guò)測(cè)度個(gè)體的不確定性態(tài)度，來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)其在相關(guān)決策情境中面對(duì)不確定性時(shí)的個(gè)體行為。本文系統(tǒng)梳理了測(cè)量不確定性偏好的不同方法，并綜述了將所測(cè)偏好與金融、保險(xiǎn)等不同領(lǐng)域決策行為相關(guān)聯(lián)的研究。我們認(rèn)為，現(xiàn)有許多研究中偏好測(cè)度的預(yù)測(cè)力有限，并據(jù)此為未來(lái)研究提出了若干潛在的推進(jìn)方向。

文中要點(diǎn)：首先，金融監(jiān)管與消費(fèi)者保護(hù)要求對(duì)客戶的不確定性態(tài)度進(jìn)行精準(zhǔn)測(cè)度。行為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)可提供比當(dāng)前實(shí)踐應(yīng)用更為豐富的方法論與概念框架，但尚未得到充分運(yùn)用。其次，不確定性是經(jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)的核心要素，然而在現(xiàn)實(shí)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況的預(yù)測(cè)與評(píng)估中，這一要素至今仍未得到充分體現(xiàn)。第三，不確定性及其影響是經(jīng)濟(jì)政策制定的關(guān)鍵考量。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s10713-025-00110-6

Does health insurance extend life expectancy? Evidence from a structural estimation

健康保險(xiǎn)能否延長(zhǎng)預(yù)期壽命？基于結(jié)構(gòu)模型估計(jì)的實(shí)證證據(jù)

作者

Pu Liao（中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)），Jinhao Liu （中央財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)）

摘要：We apply the simulated method of moments to a lifecycle model to infer the impact of health insurance on life expectancy. The model features endogenous health risks, which are determined jointly by the natural law and one’s own decisions of medical care expenditures. Individual’s optimal decisions of consumption, saving, and medical care expenditure are solved, and life expectancies are calculated in the scenarios with and without health insurance. The comparison result shows that health insurance has a positive impact on life expectancy through its positive impact on medical care expenditures, but this impact is not quantitatively significant.

本研究采用模擬矩方法分析生命周期模型，用來(lái)推斷健康保險(xiǎn)對(duì)預(yù)期壽命的影響。該模型包含內(nèi)生健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)設(shè)定，其風(fēng)險(xiǎn)水平由自然生理規(guī)律與個(gè)人醫(yī)療支出決策共同決定。通過(guò)求解個(gè)體在消費(fèi)、儲(chǔ)蓄及醫(yī)療支出的最優(yōu)決策，我們分別計(jì)算了有無(wú)健康保險(xiǎn)兩種情景下的預(yù)期壽命。對(duì)比結(jié)果顯示：健康保險(xiǎn)雖能通過(guò)提升醫(yī)療支出對(duì)壽命產(chǎn)生積極影響，但該影響程度在統(tǒng)計(jì)上并不顯著。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s10713-023-00089-y

Lowering acquisition costs with a commission cap? Evidence from the German private health insurance market

降低獲客成本：傭金上限政策的效果評(píng)估——來(lái)自德國(guó)私人健康保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的證據(jù)

作者

Kylie A. Braegelmann（霍恩海姆大學(xué)），J?rg Schiller（霍恩海姆大學(xué)）

摘要：When consumers are neither particularly financially literate nor price sensitive, insurers have a strong incentive to pay high commissions to intermediaries for profitable new business. As a part of cost reduction regulation in the German private substitutive health insurance market, a commission cap and a minimum cancelation liability period for insurance intermediaries were introduced in 2012. Despite the fact that the commission cap lowered commissions paid to intermediaries, we provide evidence that the reform was only partly effective, as it led to a decrease in reshuffling of new business in the substitutive market, but did not significantly reduce total acquisition costs of health insurers. Our findings confirm that cost regulation is tricky and can be easily circumvented by insurers, as commission payments are only a part of total acquisition costs.

當(dāng)消費(fèi)者既不具備較高的金融素養(yǎng)又對(duì)價(jià)格不敏感時(shí)，保險(xiǎn)公司有強(qiáng)烈動(dòng)機(jī)通過(guò)支付高額傭金來(lái)激勵(lì)中介機(jī)構(gòu)獲取盈利性新業(yè)務(wù)。作為德國(guó)替代性私人健康保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)成本管控改革的一部分，監(jiān)管機(jī)構(gòu)于2012年推出了保險(xiǎn)中介傭金上限與最低解約責(zé)任期的雙重規(guī)定。實(shí)證研究表明：盡管傭金上限政策確實(shí)降低了支付給中介的傭金水平，但改革僅取得部分成效——雖然有效抑制了替代性保險(xiǎn)市場(chǎng)的保單置換現(xiàn)象，卻未能顯著降低健康保險(xiǎn)公司的總獲客成本。這一發(fā)現(xiàn)印證了成本監(jiān)管的復(fù)雜性：由于傭金支出僅構(gòu)成總獲客成本的一部分，保險(xiǎn)公司仍可輕易通過(guò)其他渠道規(guī)避監(jiān)管約束。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s10713-023-00091-4

Interaction in prevention: a general theory and an application to COVID-19 pandemic

預(yù)防措施中的相互作用：一個(gè)通用理論及其在COVID-19大防控中的應(yīng)用

作者

Pietro Battiston（比薩大學(xué)），Mario Menegatti（比薩大學(xué)）

摘要：We study a model introducing interactions in agents’ prevention effort, including both the case where agents’ efforts reinforce each others and the case where they are conflicting. We characterize best response functions, distinguishing the case of strategic complementarity and the case of strategic substitutability, and determine the features of Nash equilibria in both cases. We find conditions for under- and over-provision of prevention compared to its socially optimal level. Finally, we specialize our model to describe the risk of COVID-19 infection. We show the features of contagion are consistent with the existence of asymmetric equilibria and we provide arguments in favor of policy interventions, such as making face masks mandatory, despite the possibility that they reduce some agents’ effort.

本研究構(gòu)建了一個(gè)考慮個(gè)體預(yù)防措施相互作用的模型，其中既包含預(yù)防努力相互強(qiáng)化的情形，也包含相互沖突的情形。我們通過(guò)刻畫最佳反應(yīng)函數(shù)，區(qū)分了策略互補(bǔ)性與策略替代性兩種情形，并確定了兩種情況下納什均衡的特征。研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，與社會(huì)最優(yōu)水平相比，預(yù)防措施可能呈現(xiàn)供給不足或過(guò)度供給的狀態(tài)。最后，我們將模型應(yīng)用于COVID-19感染風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析，證明病毒傳播特性與不對(duì)稱均衡的存在具有一致性，并論證了政策干預(yù)（如強(qiáng)制佩戴口罩）的必要性——盡管這些措施可能會(huì)降低部分個(gè)體的防護(hù)努力，但整體上仍具有積極意義。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s10713-023-00092-3

Self-protection against a health risk and saving: an analysis of income and health effects

防范健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與儲(chǔ)蓄行為：一項(xiàng)關(guān)于收入與健康效應(yīng)的綜合分析

作者

Jimin Hong（韓國(guó)崇實(shí)大學(xué)），Kyungsun Kim（韓國(guó)保險(xiǎn)研究院）

摘要：This study considers both an atemporal (one period) and an intertemporal (two period, with savings) model to examine the effects of income and health on self-protection. We identify clear conditions on risk preferences which imply the normality (or inferiority) of self-protection; these conditions are essentially the same in both the atemporal and intertemporal models. The effects of health on self-protection are more complicated: dynamic versus static matters, and the effects depend, in particular, on whether the individual is correlation (between health and consumption) loving or correlation averse.

本研究通過(guò)構(gòu)建單期靜態(tài)與跨期動(dòng)態(tài)（含儲(chǔ)蓄的兩期）模型，系統(tǒng)考察收入與健康水平對(duì)自我防護(hù)行為的影響。我們明確了導(dǎo)致自我防護(hù)行為呈現(xiàn)正常品（或低檔品）特征的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好條件，并證明這些條件在靜態(tài)與跨期模型中具有一致性。健康對(duì)自我防護(hù)的影響更為復(fù)雜：動(dòng)態(tài)與靜態(tài)情境下結(jié)論各異，尤其取決于個(gè)體屬于消費(fèi)健康關(guān)聯(lián)偏好型還是關(guān)聯(lián)厭惡型，這一關(guān)鍵發(fā)現(xiàn)揭示了健康風(fēng)險(xiǎn)決策中時(shí)間維度與偏好結(jié)構(gòu)的交互機(jī)制。

原文鏈接：https://link.springer.com/article/10.1057/s10713-023-00090-5

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