The war in the Middle East has halted most of the oil and gas trade from the region, forcing countries thousands of miles to contend with their energy supplies suddenly vanishing.

中東戰(zhàn)事已導(dǎo)致該地區(qū)大部分油氣貿(mào)易陷入停滯，迫使萬里之外的各國應(yīng)對能源供應(yīng)驟然中斷的局面。

The Persian Gulf accounts for roughly a fifth of the world’s energy needs. As Iran effectively blocks shipments, international prices for oil and gas have shot up. That in turn has meant gasoline, jet fuel and other products have become costlier — hurting drivers, business owners and others from Los Angeles to Lahore, Pakistan. As the world becomes gripped by the energy crisis, some nations are feeling the loss more acutely.

波斯灣的能源供應(yīng)約占全球總需求的五分之一。隨著伊朗實質(zhì)性封鎖航運(yùn)，國際油氣價格大幅飆升。汽油、航空煤油等成品油價格隨之水漲船高，從洛杉磯到巴基斯坦拉合爾，各地的車主、企業(yè)主及其他群體均受到?jīng)_擊。全球陷入能源危機(jī)之際，部分國家受到的沖擊尤為嚴(yán)重。

Asian countries are the biggest buyers of Persian Gulf energy

亞洲是波斯灣能源最大買家

In 2024, nearly 21 million barrels of oil a day crossed through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passageway connecting the Persian Gulf to the world. Four-fifths of that supply went to Asia.

2024年，每天約有2100萬桶原油經(jīng)連接波斯灣與全球市場的狹窄水道霍爾木茲海峽運(yùn)輸，其中五分之四的供應(yīng)流向亞洲。

China has long been the biggest purchaser of oil and gas from Persian Gulf nations. And with more than a third of its total supply coming from the region, the disruption is significant for Beijing. But other countries are almost entirely reliant on the region for their energy needs.

中國長期以來是波斯灣國家油氣資源的最大采購方，全國超三分之一的油氣供應(yīng)來自該地區(qū)，因此此次供應(yīng)中斷對北京影響重大。但還有一些國家的能源需求幾乎完全依賴該地區(qū)。

Pakistan has considered imposing a four-day workweek, and remote school and work, in order to preserve energy stockpiles. A state-led fund in Thailand, to subsidize the cost of fuel when prices surge, plunged into a deficit this month.

巴基斯坦已考慮推行每周四天工作制、線上辦公與線上教學(xué)，以保存能源儲備。泰國用于油價飆升時補(bǔ)貼燃油成本的國有基金本月已陷入赤字。

In India, where the economy depends on the Middle East for roughly 40 percent of the country’s oil imports and 80 percent of its gas, a shortage of cooking gas is squeezing households. And across Asia, fliers are being stranded because airlines running low on jet fuel have canceled thousands of flights.

在印度，全國約40%的原油進(jìn)口、80%的天然氣進(jìn)口依賴中東，烹飪用氣短缺正給普通家庭帶來壓力。在整個亞洲，由于航空燃油庫存告急，航空公司已取消數(shù)千架次航班，大量旅客滯留。

Europe has been more insulated, sort of

歐洲一定程度上受沖擊較小

Europe has traditionally been less reliant on the Gulf than Asia has been. It used to get most of its natural gas from Russia, but in recent years it has relied more on the United States and Norway. But the continent has had to endure one energy crisis after another in recent years, including from Russia’s war with Ukraine and the Western sanctions that followed.

與亞洲相比，歐洲傳統(tǒng)上對海灣能源的依賴度更低。該地區(qū)曾主要從俄羅斯進(jìn)口天然氣，但近年來更多依賴美國和挪威。不過近幾年，歐洲不得不接連應(yīng)對能源危機(jī)，包括俄烏戰(zhàn)爭及隨后的西方對俄制裁。

Russia is the world’s third-largest producer of oil and second-largest producer of gas, and the sales of its energy products have been significantly restricted while Moscow continues its invasion of Ukraine.

俄羅斯是全球第三大產(chǎn)油國、第二大產(chǎn)氣國，在莫斯科持續(xù)入侵烏克蘭期間，其能源產(chǎn)品的銷售受到了嚴(yán)格限制。

This current crisis comes as European countries, confronting lackluster economic output, try to rebuild their industrial bases and fend off competition from cheaper Chinese exports.

本輪危機(jī)爆發(fā)之際，歐洲各國正面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)增長乏力的困境，試圖重建工業(yè)基礎(chǔ)，抵御價格更低的中國出口商品帶來的競爭。

Confronted with soaring prices since its attack with Israel on Iran, the United States temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian oil that is currently at sea, hoping to ease the global supply and markets in the process. The European Union has not made similar moves.

自與以色列共同襲擊伊朗以來，美國面臨油價飆升，為此臨時解除了對目前在途俄羅斯原油的制裁，希望借此緩解全球供應(yīng)緊張局面、穩(wěn)定市場。歐盟尚未出臺類似舉措。

Parts of Africa will be hit hard

非洲部分地區(qū)將遭受重創(chuàng)

African nations, like many other countries in the global south, could feel the disruption unevenly. Seychelles, the island nation off the east coast of Africa, imported almost all of its energy from Gulf states in 2024. Mauritius has had a similar reliance, while Nigeria, an oil-rich state and a member of the OPEC Plus oil cartel, has traditionally imported relatively few fossil fuels from the Middle East.

與眾多全球南方國家一樣，非洲各國受到程度不一的供應(yīng)沖擊。非洲東海岸的島國塞舌爾2024年幾乎全部能源都從海灣國家進(jìn)口；毛里求斯對海灣能源的依賴度與之相近。石油資源豐富的歐佩克+成員國尼日利亞則傳統(tǒng)上從中東進(jìn)口的化石燃料相對較少。

But as the war continues, the impact is being felt beyond the imports of oil and gas. The Persian Gulf is a dominant source of fertilizer, partly because the region’s abundance of energy has spurred the development of factories that make the raw materials for many types of agricultural chemicals.

但隨著戰(zhàn)事持續(xù)，其影響已超出油氣進(jìn)口范疇。波斯灣是全球化肥的核心供應(yīng)地，部分原因在于該地區(qū)充沛的能源供應(yīng)，推動了各類農(nóng)用化工原料生產(chǎn)工廠的發(fā)展。

A sustained rise in the cost of fertilizer could force governments in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa to subsidize the cost of growing crops or otherwise watch food prices climb. That could add to debt burdens afflicting many lower-income countries.

化肥價格持續(xù)上漲可能迫使南亞和撒哈拉以南非洲國家政府為農(nóng)作物種植提供補(bǔ)貼，否則只能眼睜睜看著食品價格攀升。這可能會進(jìn)一步加重許多低收入國家本就沉重的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)。

The Americas and elsewhere are feeling broader economic shocks

美洲及其他地區(qū)正面臨廣泛經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊

The United States is the world’s largest producer of oil and gas. That means the impact of halting the energy trade from the Middle East is much less severe.

美國是全球最大的油氣生產(chǎn)國，這意味著中東能源貿(mào)易停滯對其造成的沖擊要小得多。

But the United States and other countries in the region that do not import great quantities from the Gulf are still feeling economic strain. The jump in oil prices – to over $100 a barrel in recent weeks – has already weighed on other major economic factors.

即使如此，美國以及該地區(qū)其他不從海灣大量進(jìn)口能源的國家依然感受到了經(jīng)濟(jì)壓力。近幾周，飆升至每桶100美元以上的油價已經(jīng)拖累了其他核心經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)。

The cost of gasoline has jumped by about a dollar a gallon nationally since the war began. American airlines have begun to cut flights because of fuel costs. Concerns about inflation have pushed mortgage rates to their highest level in three months, just weeks after they fell below 6 percent for the first time since 2022.

戰(zhàn)事爆發(fā)以來，美國全國汽油均價每加侖上漲了約1美元。因燃油成本高企，美國航空公司已開始削減航班。對通脹的擔(dān)憂推動抵押貸款利率升至三個月來最高水平，而就在幾周前，利率剛自2022年以來首次跌破6%。

If the war drags on, or if oil and gas prices continue to rise, the damage will most likely grow, economists say. It is perhaps one reason why the White House has forcefully insisted that it does not need Middle Eastern oil — and is increasingly trying to use military force to stop Iran’s blockade of it.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，若戰(zhàn)事持續(xù)，或是油氣價格繼續(xù)攀升，造成的損害大概率會進(jìn)一步擴(kuò)大。這或許也是白宮一方面強(qiáng)硬聲稱美國不需要中東石油，另一方面又愈發(fā)頻繁地動用軍事力量，試圖打破伊朗對霍爾木茲海峽封鎖的原因之一。