近日，“今明兩年或成歷史最熱年份”“地球或將迎超級厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象”等話題頻頻登上熱搜，引發(fā)廣泛討論。對此，國家氣候中心專家指出，今年春季后期有可能進入厄爾尼諾狀態(tài)，但目前斷言將出現(xiàn)“超級厄爾尼諾”還為時尚早。

It is still too early to determine whether a super El Nino, a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, will develop this year, experts said.

多家媒體報道稱，全球多個科研機構預測，今年晚些時候可能出現(xiàn)強厄爾尼諾現(xiàn)象，進而擾動全球氣候，可能引發(fā)極端高溫、洪水、干旱等災害，還可能進一步推高全球氣溫，導致今明兩年夏季氣溫攀升至歷史新高。

Recent discussions on social media have suggested that this year and next could become the hottest years on record and that the Earth may be approaching a powerful El Nino event capable of triggering global climate disruptions.

國家氣候中心專家解釋，厄爾尼諾-南方濤動（ENSO）是發(fā)生在熱帶太平洋、具有3至7年周期的海氣耦合振蕩現(xiàn)象，屬于氣候系統(tǒng)的自然變率。通常通過監(jiān)測熱帶中東太平洋固定區(qū)域海表溫度（SST）的異常值（即偏離氣候平均態(tài)的程度）的持續(xù)時間和強度來判斷ENSO的相位變化。

The El Nino–Southern Oscillation, often known as ENSO, is a naturally occurring climate pattern involving fluctuations in ocean temperatures and atmospheric conditions across the tropical Pacific. Scientists classify ENSO phases by measuring sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific.

如果3個月滑動平均海表溫度值持續(xù)5個月高于0.5°C，則為暖位相，稱為厄爾尼諾；如果持續(xù)5個月低于-0.5°C，則為冷位相，稱為拉尼娜；如果在-0.5°C至0.5°C之間波動，則稱為中性狀態(tài)。

When the three-month average temperature anomaly exceeds 0.5 C for at least five consecutive months, the event is considered an El Nino, while a sustained anomaly below minus 0.5 C indicates La Nina conditions.

國家氣候中心基于最新監(jiān)測數據和國內外多家氣候模式的預測結果分析，近期拉尼娜狀態(tài)趨于結束，后續(xù)將進入中性狀態(tài)。未來熱帶中東太平洋海溫將持續(xù)回升，今年春季后期有可能進入厄爾尼諾狀態(tài)。

Based on recent observations and model forecasts, the center said the current La Nina episode is gradually ending and will likely transition into a neutral phase in the coming months. Sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to continue warming, raising the possibility that El Nino conditions could form as early as late spring.

圖源：國家氣候中心

國家氣候中心氣候預測室主任劉蕓蕓表示，從歷史統(tǒng)計看，拉尼娜事件結束后，當年進入厄爾尼諾狀態(tài)的概率約為三分之一。國際上多個模式預測進入厄爾尼諾的具體時間存在差異，最早可能在今年4月，最晚可能在夏末秋初，不同模式預測差異較大，目前尚無法準確預測其具體形成時間和總體強度。

Historical data show that the probability of entering an El Nino phase in the same year after a La Nina ends is about one-third, said Liu Yunyun, director of the climate prediction division at the center. Despite these projections, Liu said it remains difficult to determine precisely when an El Nino might form or how strong it would become.

因此，現(xiàn)在斷言今年會出現(xiàn)“超級厄爾尼諾”還為時過早。

"It is premature to conclude that a 'super El Nino' will occur this year," she said.

圖源：中國氣象局

國家氣候中心氣候預測室首席專家陳麗娟提示，厄爾尼諾事件往往伴隨全球平均氣溫升高。但具體升溫幅度和極端天氣表現(xiàn)，還需根據厄爾尼諾的強度、類型及區(qū)域氣候響應進一步監(jiān)測研判。

Chen Lijuan, chief forecaster at the National Climate Center's climate prediction division, said El Nino events often coincide with rising global average temperatures. However, the scale of warming and the intensity of extreme weather events depend on the strength and type of the El Nino event as well as regional climate responses, she said.

極端天氣氣候事件多發(fā)頻發(fā)的背景下，天氣氣候相關信息浩如煙海。當前社交媒體上關于“最熱年”“極端天氣”等話題討論熱烈，部分信息可能存在夸大或斷章取義。

The surge of climate-related discussions on social media, including claims about "the hottest year" or catastrophic weather, can sometimes involve exaggeration or information taken out of context.

陳麗娟建議公眾理性看待預測信息。氣候預測具有一定不確定性，尤其是厄爾尼諾的具體形成時間、強度和影響區(qū)域仍需動態(tài)監(jiān)測和預測。公眾應關注權威機構發(fā)布的實時更新的預測信息，而非單一時間點的極端表述。

Chen urged the public to interpret such predictions cautiously, noting that climate forecasting always involves uncertainties, particularly regarding the timing, intensity and regional impacts of an El Nino event.

她建議關注國家氣候中心、中國氣象局官網及官方新媒體平臺等權威發(fā)布渠道，定期查閱ENSO監(jiān)測公報等權威信息。世界氣象組織、政府間氣候變化專門委員會等國際機構也會定時發(fā)布全球氣候評估報告，可作為參考。

無論厄爾尼諾是否發(fā)生，極端天氣頻發(fā)已成為全球氣候變化的新常態(tài)，應科學應對。公眾可提前關注氣象預警，做好相應的防范應對準備；農業(yè)生產者應合理安排農事活動；城市管理者應加強供電、供水、交通等基礎設施的韌性建設。

"Regardless of whether El Nino develops this year, the increasing frequency of extreme weather events has become a new reality under global climate change," Chen said, advising the public to stay alert to weather warnings from authoritative sources and prepare accordingly.

記者：趙伊夢

跟著China Daily

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